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    Real Estate Investing: [MEGA THREAD] Market Predictions - May 2021

    Real Estate Investing: [MEGA THREAD] Market Predictions - May 2021


    [MEGA THREAD] Market Predictions - May 2021

    Posted: 21 May 2021 03:00 PM PDT

    A large contingent of our members want to talk about current market conditions. Here is your opportunity to share your thoughts, vote in the poll, and argue about whether you have the clearest crystal ball.

    Tell us what you think the Market is going to do.

    I'll get us started:

    • This is not 2008 - we don't have NINJA loans, there isn't a proliferation of ARM loans.
    • Housing Stock is in short supply, building costs are up.
    • Housing Starts in Jan 2006: 2.3M before housing starts fell off the cliff. Housing Starts fluctuated between 1.6 - 2.3M every month for the preceding 3 years.
    • We've just now returned to pre-pandemic housing starts of 1.6M Well below the 2M oversupply line.
    • Money is cheaper now then it was then.
    • People have more free time, and a greater ability to be transient than they have in the past.
    • We have been on a bull market, the high paying tech field is matured, and individuals are getting RSUs that, and not worthless stock options.
    • Banks are at less risk today then they were before:
      • Banks entered 2020 and the outbreak of COVID-19 with historically high levels of capital and liquidity to support credit stress. Moreover, exceptional support from monetary and fiscal policy bolstered banks' balance sheets, earnings, and credit quality, and expectations are for additional policy support through 2021. By year-end 2020, although the tier 1 leverage ratio declined slightly, capital remained sound and well above the prior 25-year average. The Federal Reserve provided unprecedented support by injecting an outsized amount of cash reserves. As a result, the system's liquid assets2 as a percent of total assets surged to 23.9 percent at the end of 2020, up from an already elevated level of 15.3 percent in 2019. [source]

    Please take this thread as your opportunity to tell us what you think about the market conditions, and argue your side of affairs.

    KEEP IT CIVIL & POLITE. We try to moderate with a light hand, and we don't want to have to become more aggressive in our moderation.

    [All other threads on the topic will either be locked, or deleted]

    View Poll

    submitted by /u/AutoModerator
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    Can someone clear up the FHA Self Sufficiency test once and for all?

    Posted: 21 May 2021 07:13 PM PDT

    I'm an agent on the side, but have never done anything more than a duplex. I'm planning on getting a triplex for myself with an FHA loan, and 4 loan officers have described the self sufficiency test in two different ways.

    The rule is that for a triplex or a quad, 75% of the properties rental income needs to cover PITI. Seems simple enough, but I can't get a straight answer on one thing: does the occupied unit's market rent count?

    Two say no, and two say yes. I know it's a no when it comes to DTI, they only consider the rented units, but I can't imagine it's the same for self sufficiency? 75% of 2 units needs to cover the PITI for all 3?

    So, say for example I'm buying a triplex. 3 units, market rent is $1000 each. I'm occupying one, so pro forma income is $3000 (3 units) but actual income is $2000 (2 rented units). If the PITI is, say, $2,100, will it or will it not pass the self sufficency test?

    Two say yes it will. Because all 3 units have a market rate of $3,000 total, 75% or that is $2,250. Two say no it won't, because you can't count the occupied unit, so it won't pass if PITI is more than 75% of the $2,000 total.

    Google hasn't been any clearer, and at this point, I'm one more "I'm pretty sure it's X but I'll check again" away from calling Marcia Fudge's office and demanding an appointment my damn self

    submitted by /u/XHIBAD
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    Should I buy a multi family unit?

    Posted: 21 May 2021 07:28 AM PDT

    I'm young (soon to be 25) and my goal in life is to not have to "work" in life. My current idea/attempt at achieving that goal is to buy a multi family house, live in a unit, and use that rental money to pay the mortgage and save for my next multi family house. Repeat said cycle until I can quit my job and live off of rental income.

    I currently have 28k saved and I would like to purchase something around 2-300k (medium sized city, most individual houses are 100k). I've never bought a house, my family has always rented and has no experience doing any of this.

    I've been on YT, going through internet guides, and now pestering all of you trying to learn the steps and process of buying a house, along with ensuring that the property is a money making asset (it cash flows) etc…

    I have read about FHA loans and I don't know if they are a good vehicle for what I am looking to do or if I should save up more and go with a more traditional loan. So my questions to you lovely people are:

    1.) Is this a good idea going in with no experience? 2.) What can I do to lower my interest rate? 3.) How much profit per unit/building (before and after taxes) should I look for to make it worthwhile for my strategy of (possible) exponential growth? 4.) What things should I look for or worry about that isn't obvious to the casual observer? 5.) With the capital I have accrued is it potentially worth it to buy a property to renovate prior to renting if the location is good? Or should I just buy something that I can simply "slide" into? 6.) Can I have a house built? Obviously every answer comes with the caveat "it depends". Having no experience leads me to say no, but I don't know what to look for nor do I know how much money I would need to start that process. 7.) Am I just being a really dumb young guy and should just buy a fast car and accept my 40hr work week for the next 40 years?

    Some info that might be important in sussing out my situation:

    AGI: 55k DTI: 19% (I have a credit card payment, I can obviously pay it all off now if I wanted, but 0% introductory rate so I don't feel an urge to do so unless I need to) Credit Score: 760

    Thank you for being nice and civil!

    submitted by /u/cav754
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    House hack?

    Posted: 22 May 2021 02:01 AM PDT

    Hello I wanted to see what your guys take is on me buying a nice big house in San Diego and I was planning on buying a fifth wheel trailer and living in it and renting the house out. I calculated and depending I will only pay 300 for the fifth wheel and the payments for the house will be 2300 and I will rent it out for 2800 it's a nice big luxury house. Thoughts?

    submitted by /u/Obvious_Shine_1757
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    Problematic tenants (Florida)

    Posted: 21 May 2021 06:03 PM PDT

    Based on some bad advice from a family member my mom rented her home to tenants without a lease drawn up. The tenants have been there for about 3 years now and have yet to pay a full-month's rent on time, and they also take very poor care of the house.

    Due to the house appreciating in value by ~300% in the last 10 years I think it's in my mother's best interest to evict the tenants and fix the house up, most likely with an equity loan on the house. She could rent it for double what her tenants are paying now based on neighborhood comps, and she could actually do it with a lease and a quality tenant.

    Any advice here for how she should proceed? I have no clue how feasible an eviction is given the circumstances.

    submitted by /u/swolenoles
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    New Investor just bought first rental condominium

    Posted: 21 May 2021 06:24 PM PDT

    Hello everyone, I am a new real estate investor. I work a full time job at an utility company and make ~140k a year, I just bought my first rental condominium and plan to buy more rentals. I heard that I should start LLC but I also stumbled upon S corp and C corp. Which suits best for me? I am very confused with what type of corporation I should start.

    Thanks in advance for your help.

    submitted by /u/tusharpatel1992
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    ADU

    Posted: 21 May 2021 08:36 PM PDT

    I have a pretty complicated questions. I recently purchased a single family residence with an unfinished ADU in the back.

    My plan was to complete the ADU and rent it out. Turns out the city has the lot zoned as commercial and they aren't going to give me a permit to finish the ADU. I didn't ask to clarify but I'm pretty sure the ADU was built unpermitted.

    What can the city do to me if I decide to complete the project anyway? As far as they are concerned the ADU was never supposed to be there anyway, so if the city was to come by my plan was to tell them I purchased the property like that.

    Can the city fine me? Force me to remove the ADU? Even if it was already there.

    Thanks I'm advanced!

    submitted by /u/StableBoth3282
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    Sustainability

    Posted: 21 May 2021 05:57 PM PDT

    Does anyone have any reading or resource suggestions on information pertaining to sustainability in real estate? Would like to get some ideas as to how to incorporate it into our business. TY!

    submitted by /u/Djffr3sssh
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    Looking at 6 unit multi family deal, cap rate seems to be a bit low?

    Posted: 21 May 2021 02:06 PM PDT

    I'm doing analysis on 1.5 mil 6 unit apartment complex.

    Last years NOI WAS 58,887.

    Doing the math that's a 3.9 cap rate.

    Prices have been changing a lot but isn't that a bit of a low cap rate?

    Market is in SoCal. Doing a bit of google searching the current cap rates are around 4-4.5%. Perhaps I'm wrong on this though.

    submitted by /u/XiMs
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    How to properly handle end of lease of a non paying tenant?

    Posted: 21 May 2021 02:56 PM PDT

    I am a first time landlord who is managing a property remotely. How do I deal with a non-paying tenant whose lease is coming to end by the end of this month? The tenant is current up to the end of April (Rent is due for May still) and hasn't been responding to texts or calls. I am not assuming anything but I want to prepared if the tenant refuses to leave and not do anything in the heat of the moment. I sent a mail that requires signature stating my intent to not renew the lease around a month ago but she refused to sign it apparently. The lease says, the tenant must leave at the end of the lease if not renewed (no conversion to month-month). Here are the things I am to do. Please correct/suggest me if I am missing some crucial part.

    • I am going to send another notice of non-renewal just to make sure. How to legally make sure I sent this notice of non-renewal?
    • 3 day notice to move out of the property by the end of this month.
    • I will ask the gas and electricity to be stopped after the end of lease. Should I do this?
    • By the end of next week, I'll be contacting an eviction attorney to start procedures for eviction.

    Please let me know if I have to be mindful of anything during this process. Thank you.

    submitted by /u/ur2cdanger
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    20 year old, completely new to real estate . Wanting to buy a property/apartment etc .

    Posted: 21 May 2021 09:12 AM PDT

    I'm new to this I've been unemployed for 2-3ish months since my job has shut down . Been looking for jobs but nothing has come back, I've saved a decent bit from my job and I'm trying my best to get something rolling . If someone could give me a step by step and great advice I'd surely appreciate it !

    submitted by /u/kaptinkrunch13
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    Do you use your own spreadsheet or work off of a template when calculating cash flow?

    Posted: 21 May 2021 10:31 AM PDT

    I've relied on the biggerpockets calculator and other pre-made spreadsheets, but I think it's about time to build my own to really understand a potential investment before diving in.

    If you do make your own, what are some of the numbers you find difficult to predict or assume?

    submitted by /u/olioxnfree
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    Title Company Issue

    Posted: 21 May 2021 06:26 PM PDT

    Hey there everyone, I'm currently selling my home and I've received an offer from a real estate agency that rents homes and they require me to go through their title company. Can I stumble upon potential issues, such as the title company not wiring the money after the closing contract has been signed? What happens in the case that I don't receive the money? Will the contract be nullified? In the contract it states that closing to be done in one day and the "Buyer will pay cash for the purchase of the property at closing".

    Thanks for any help

    submitted by /u/Uthred11
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    Home sales skyrocket since fewer on the market | NewsLooks

    Posted: 21 May 2021 06:02 PM PDT

    The price of homes is soaring due to lack of previously occupied homes on the market

    (AP) Sales of previously occupied U.S. homes fell for the third straight month in April as the number of properties for sale hit a record low, driving prices to new highs.

    Existing home sales fell 2.7% last month from March to a seasonally-adjusted rate of 5.85 million annualized units

    https://www.newslooks.com/home-sales-skyrocket-since-fewer-on-the-market/

    submitted by /u/Newslooks
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    Money to invest

    Posted: 21 May 2021 05:45 PM PDT

    Hello all, long time lurker on this sub, and I've learned a lot. Two years ago I managed to buy a home in a very desirable neighborhood in a Colorado ski town, and given the real estate market since, I've had really good appreciation on the property. ( around 300k in equity ) I will also be receiving inheritance money totaling 100k in the next 1-2 months. My question is what is the best way to invest this money? I'm open to using heloc loans, equity cash outs, or anything that makes good financial sense. Any help is much appreciated.

    submitted by /u/Teidt875
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    Have any of you had experience with Qualified Opportunity Zones? How has it worked for you?

    Posted: 21 May 2021 05:38 PM PDT

    I have a couple properties that are in opportunity zones. I didn't know anything about it when I bought them. I have owned them for 7 years. Do I have to do something special to be part of the program, or just indicate it on my taxes?

    Thanks for any input! Especially in how the process went for you.

    submitted by /u/Theycallhimone
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    What business cards have you received that really stood out from others?

    Posted: 21 May 2021 09:21 AM PDT

    I'm in an area where people are pretty old fashioned and like to receive business cards. It lets them feel more comfortable and lets them know the person that is knocking on their door trying to buy their house is legit. I was wondering what business cards you've received really stood out to you? what was it about the card that stood out? the thickness? the materials used? the shape? the colors used?

    submitted by /u/fathergoldengoose
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    Multi-state RE lawyers... Do they exist?

    Posted: 21 May 2021 02:52 PM PDT

    And if so, how can I find one?

    I have 4 properties across three states and about to invest in a fourth. I'm ready to establish an LLC. I also have someone interested in partnering with me on the fourth, so I want to be careful to protect us both and keep each property in its own LLC.

    Seems like I should form the LLC in either TX or DE then use a series for each prop. I want to make sure I write appropriate operating agreements as well as make sure I can operate in each of the states legally.

    Most importantly, I want to do all this with one lawyer I can trust and that trusts me.

    Btw, I will need one accountant, too, but I suppose that is a whole other conversation.

    submitted by /u/_mvnky
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    Negotiating...right now

    Posted: 21 May 2021 07:19 AM PDT

    So, hey! I've bought a bunch of SFHs, including one I had to win a bidding war for a few months ago. But my understanding is that now things are even crazier. Houses in my home market are routinely poofing in 24 hours at $100K over asking. And houses in this market are going over market quickly -- a lot of my coworkers are bidding on houses and losing.

    So, now I'm looking at a house that is off-market. If the sellers and I can agree on it, they'll sell it directly to me and not put it on.

    Here's its situation:

    It's a 1900s home in an extremely hot, stable neighborhood which is an A 'hood next door to an Ivy League university. I have to work in the town where it's located, and have a relocation agreement that provides part of my down payment -- but I actually can't move there full time for at least a year. There are no other houses within miles that are less than $100K more than this house, and most are closer to $200K more. It was owned by some old person and not updated after roughly 1940ish. 1300 sq. feet, 3 bedrooms, but with a full basement and attic (and the attic is awesome -- I'm totally going to make it into a master suite eventually, if I buy this). Has an almost double lot -- I can't subdivide it, but I can build a very large, inhabitable accessory structure or a duplex on it. I would need to put at least $20-30K into it to get it to my ideal condition, but I can make it functional for maybe $15K. Currently it's mothballed -- no heating system, plumbing is iffy, but I'd want to gut the plumbing anyway. At the point when it's functional I'll seek tenants -- I need to use it for my own residence at times, so it'll be an AirBNB or I'll rent it by the room. Eventually I may need to live in it full time, but I may also seek a long-term roommate so I can keep using it for a crash pad or flip it.

    So...the current owners bought it for $200K as a decrepit but functional property in 2017. They've done some demo because they wanted to flip it and aren't really qualified, so they're willing to sell it to me at $250K. The bank says whatever, cool, do what you want, but they won't even blink if I buy it at $240K because that's what they have pegged it at -- apparently off internal databases. They tell me I'll need "additional documentation" to pay any more. I have some cash on hand, but I'd rather use it for improvements.

    So....should I negotiate, and if so how would you pitch it? Or in light of the situation and market, should I just buy it?

    submitted by /u/Snoo_33033
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    Investor here looking to bring business to Texas.

    Posted: 21 May 2021 05:10 PM PDT

    I'm an investor from Ny and will be moving to Austin Tx within a few months. I'm aware Austin is overly saturated/high competition. I will most likely be looking in the surrounding areas up to an hour outside of Austin. Does anyone have any tips or advice on where I should be looking for mid to lower competition areas? Mainly for fix and flips. Also Realtors, contractors, wholesalers and investors are very welcomed to contact me as my partners and I are looking to make new relationships for real estate business. Thanks in advance! - Vinny

    submitted by /u/itsadogeeatdogeworld
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    Should I buy my first rental using LLC ?

    Posted: 21 May 2021 08:58 AM PDT

    I currently own a property management business that looks after over 30 properties.

    submitted by /u/Internationa_Mudlark
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    To buy rentals all cash or financed? Confused

    Posted: 21 May 2021 12:23 PM PDT

    Hello!

    I'm in my early 20s and I've been doing online marketing since I was in HS for work. I've always wanted to invest in real estate and the time has finally come where I'm in the position to do so.

    A friend's Dad of mine was an F1 driver and bought all his properties in cash. Now his properties generate enough per month for him to buy new properties every single month.

    Another "mentor" of mine also has bought all of his properties in cash and he makes absurd amounts of money..

    They all strictly advise me to buy all my properties in cash and by the time I reach my 4th or 5th property, the cash flow will start to compound and buy me more properties.

    But I understand that buying RE financed can allow you to buy multiple properties at once opposed to one.

    I guess the question is: Would having 3-6 months mortgage payments and a few extra thousand dollars be enough of a safety net for me if I buy homes financed?

    submitted by /u/cincinnatiz
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    Construction Costs for Multi-Family? (CA)

    Posted: 21 May 2021 09:01 AM PDT

    Is it more or less expensive than building a SFH in California?

    People have offered a $125+/sq ft price for SFH but seems high for my intended multi-family construction

    submitted by /u/throwaway102020822
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