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    Wednesday, November 4, 2020

    Real Estate Investing: 2020 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

    Real Estate Investing: 2020 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE


    2020 HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 08:43 PM PST

    Hello all, the numbers for October came in via Black Knight's Mortgage Monitor. If anyone is speculating a crash in 2021, here are some numbers to look at.

    Home prices: Low rates, improved affordability and low inventory continue to put upward pressure on home prices, with the median home price rising by 14.2% in September. This is up 11.5 % since August, and the highest annual home price growth in 15 years. It is expected home buying will increase even into December.

    Delinquencies: Mortage Delinquencies are down 3.10% in October. The level of of all delinquencies less than 90 days past due has now returned to pre pandemic levels. Serious Delinquencies are down 43k, however, more than 2.3 Million home owners (5x the number entering 2020) remain 90 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure. Once 2021 comes around , I can see a possibility of a lot of these turning into foreclosures. To compare, in total we have 2.5 million either delinquent or in foreclosure as compared to the Great Recession peak of 5 million. We only have currently 181k active foreclosures as compared to 2.2 million at the peak of the Great Recession. Our TOTAL delinquent is 3.5 million compared to 5.8 during the Great Recession.

    On a positive note: Pre payment rate is up 12.70%. There are now just 821K mortgage holders that are a single month behind on payments, down nearly 20% from pre-pandemic levels, and the lowest such volume on record dating back 2000.

    Highlights: - After peaking in May, delinquencies have now fallen by more than 14% (-582K) over the past four months - As of September month-end, some 3.54M (6.66%) borrowers remain past due but not yet in foreclosure, down from 3.68M (6.88%) the month prior - September also marked the first improvement in serious delinquencies (90+ days past due) since the start of the pandemic, which fell from 2.37M to 2.32M. - Still, 4.4% of mortgage-holders remain seriously delinquent on their mortgages, more than 5.5X (+1.9M) than the share six months ago - Despite serious delinquencies remaining significantly elevated, early-stage delinquencies have shown strong improvement

    What can we take from this is still un clear. I definitely believe we will be into a cooling trend coming in 2021 but don't know about a crash. I suggest checking out the sources I list below and staying up to date on this market.

    Source: Black Knight, mortgage Bankers association.

    submitted by /u/dr7s
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    Lost $50K on investment property. Don't be me

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 05:49 AM PST

    Bought an amazing townhome 3 years ago in a different western state than the one I lived in. Hired an incompetent property manager and didn't fire quickly. Ran into all the major maintenance expenses (roof, siding, drywall, flooring, etc.). Property vacant for the past 6 months. Selling for the same price that I bought it at.

    Lessons from this stumble on the journey to FIRE -

    1. don't ever buy an IP you can't drive to within a couple hours.
    2. Do proper IP analysis (Cash on Cash, Cap rate, etc.
    3. Pay extra for thorough inspection.

    Feel free to list others folks.

    submitted by /u/palebluedot17
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    [serious] people investing in south Florida, what are you thinking?

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 04:18 AM PST

    Numerous studies indicate that significant chunks of South Florida will be underwater by 2050 - I saw one study that about $23b worth of Miami real estate alone will be written off by then. This means people are buying property today and taking mortgages on property which will be useless before the mortgage term.

    It's built on limestone, which is porous. You can build all the seawalls you want, it's not gonna help. Water will come up through the ground.

    I mean, do you guys not believe the science, or are you banking on a kind of "bigger fool" thing where you enjoy ten years in paradise and unload it one someone else who's gonna get stuck holding the bag?

    I am genuinely curious. I wouldn't touch south Florida with a bargepole. There is some kind of game of actuarial chicken going on where everyone is just sort of agreeing to underprice the risk, from developers to property owners to insurers to reinsurers to state and federal government ... presumably based on some anticipated bailout as the water rises. But when it becomes clear the problem is too big, too insurmountable, too fundamental to bail out, then everyone gets slammed by 6x higher insurance rates, prices start to decline, mortgages are underwater, no new mortgages granted, the whole value will drain out in a couple of years.

    What's your endgame here?

    submitted by /u/Erioph47
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    When did you move your properties into an LLC or business holding?

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 07:56 PM PST

    How many units did you have when you made the change? What were your primary reasons....legal insulation? Taxes?

    submitted by /u/Heydanu
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    Does real estate investing make sense when earning a higher salary? It feels like being a landlord is a second job and I could make more in medicine

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 06:55 PM PST

    My goal is to FIRE as fast as possible. I'm married, 32 years old, one young child and probably will have one more. My wife doesn't work and stays home with our child. I make $140k at my full time job where work in medicine (nurse practitioner) and have a per diem gig on the side that I make $115/hr at when I pick up on a weekend or $160/hr when I work a holiday (I work almost all of them). At my per diem rate, is my time better spent doing that rather than buying rental properties and managing them? I'm maxxing out my 401k and getting employer match, maxxing out mt HSA and plan to drop 12k between my Roth and a spousal Roth soon. I have about $40k outside of my emergency fund ready to use on an investment (unless I put 12k of it into Roths). What's the best next step? Should I cut back on investments and use to save more to get into real estate? Or keep picking up shifts at $115 or $160 per hour? Start a telemedicine business? Just invest more in stocks?

    submitted by /u/googs185
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    How do you keep track of all business income and expenses?

    Posted: 04 Nov 2020 01:33 AM PST

    Please give me some APPS or programs, tips.. etc

    submitted by /u/DetroitCam2
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    Follow Up Post: 25Yr Old With down Payment For 4Plex Having Income Level Issues Holding Back To Qualify For FHA 3.5% Down

    Posted: 04 Nov 2020 12:29 AM PST

    (BTW the video is not me just a random LO explaining the financing technique)

    So, welcome back.

    I have learned that I can use the rental income to qualify for a 4 plex FHA 3.5% down on a $900K building loan with credit above 620 and 2 years of W/2 Income At $40K level. (Washington State Market Guild Mortgage)

    Here's the scoop:

    The property must pass the "FHA Self Sufficiency Test" YouTube it! YOUTUBE LINK

    Email from LO:

    "Hi -

    We can use rental income if the units are rented. We would need a copy of all the leases; we need a market rent analysis from the appraiser (additional cost), and there is an additional form that is filled out which must reach a threshold."

    Guidelines:

    Self-Sufficiency Rental Income Eligibility

    (a) Definition Net Self-Sufficiency Rental Income refers to the Rental Income produced by the subject Property over and above the Principal, Interest, Taxes, and Insurance (PITI).

    (b) Standard The PITI divided by the monthly Net Self-Sufficiency Rental Income may not exceed 100 percent for three- to four-unit Properties.

    (c) Calculation Net Self-Sufficiency Rental Income is calculated by using the Appraiser's estimate of fair market rent from all units, including the unit the Borrower chooses for occupancy, and subtracting the greater of the Appraiser's estimate for vacancies and maintenance, or 25 percent of the fair market rent.

    NOTE! THEY WILL USE AN APPRAISER ESTIMATE OF MARKET RATE RENT NOT THE CURRENT RENTAL RATE! Very important to remember this as it's beneficial for you!

    Otherwise, by default, you'd have to use your own income to qualify for the FHA Multi Family mortgage.

    Which if you earn $40k per year, qualifying for the mortgage won't happen on a $900K building.

    I hope this helps those young adults in their pursuit of fatFIRE!

    Also, I am going to have a cash reserve of $25-$30K going into the 4 plex after the downpayment and fees in case you were wondering.

    submitted by /u/CompetitiveHousing0
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    Questions from a new prospective investor

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 04:57 PM PST

    Im sure stuff like this gets asked all the time, if so I am sorry.

    I would like to learn from everyones experience. What do I need to know? Books to read? I just finished rich dad poor dad and I really like how real estate sounds. I am currently only in stocks.

    How to you find tenants? What websites do you use to buy/rent? Do you need a lawyer? Who writes the contracts? What happens if they dont pay rent, can I be protected?

    All the basics. Once again im sure this stuff gets asked daily. Im 25 years old and would like to own my first property within 5 years!!

    submitted by /u/Sovereign_Mind
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    Do you consider your home an investment?

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 08:08 PM PST

    We currently are renovating a home to move into. We still own are other house. In most ways it's a dream home. On the other hand we could flip it and make mid 6-figures. So hard to say no to that.

    I've been doing RE investment for 20+ years. Does everyone else find that hat hard to take off? It is better for my family to keep it , but I just want to do it again...

    submitted by /u/Skier94
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    Bigger Pockets- any tips

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 10:56 AM PST

    Hi all, I am a CPA, who wants to learn more about real estate. I want to use bigger pockets because that's what everyone says to check out. Any tips or suggestions as to what I should look at first?

    Like some sort of order of operations like "learn this first, then this, then this" thanks.

    submitted by /u/Taxguy1123
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    Perspective from someone with no experience

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 03:22 PM PST

    So it's basically just that. I have absolutely zero experience in owning a home. I have a couple hundred thousand saved right now and am comfortable with my living situation for the time being so im considering buying a rental.

    I know I'm wrong here but not sure how wrong so I'll put things into my perspective. I basically go on the realtor app all the time. I've figured out that I can buy a 3bedroom 1bath townhome for around 50k. The calculator on the app says my mortgage would be under $500 a month with 25% down. I'd have to do some upgrades but nothing that really scares me. I'm familiar with this area and know I could rent this for around $1100-$1300 per month. So my thought process is I'm making $500+ a month.

    I'm aware that tenants don't always pay (my mother worked in landlord and tenant most of her life). So I'd do my very best at venting in order to get the best possible tenant I could (also aware this is probably easier said then done.)

    I'm aware that things break. This is something that I'll have to expect and put aside for but also doesn't worry me too much. A good friend of mine owns a large contracting business and we work very well together.

    So where or how would I lose? Again I know this is all easier said then done but it's been something I've been interested in for a little bit now. I'm just starting to feel like if I can get these places with a mortgage that cheap and using some of the resources I have it's a no brainer. Someone help me out here

    submitted by /u/lawnboy232
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    Airbnb investment properties - what to consider

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 12:14 PM PST

    I am just starting to think about real estate investing for the first time. Modeling out a potential Airbnb investment, am I missing anything?

    -Down payment and closing costs; income from eventual sale and selling costs -Monthly principal and interest payments -Property taxes and insurance (assume no HOA) -Furnishing and maintenance costs -Utilities and wifi -Airbnb cost per night, cleaning fee, occupancy rate -Airbnb cut -Property management fees -Taxes on Airbnb earnings

    Also, any starter resources you'd recommend would be really helpful!

    submitted by /u/daniellecher
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    I wanted to get your guys opinion on this.

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 05:50 PM PST

    Received Offer on Recent Land Purchase

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 03:53 PM PST

    I received a letter from an out of state group with an offer to purchase a piece of land I bought about a month ago. I'm just interested to know why they would be looking to buy it? It's unrestricted, wooded less than 3 acres, about $6k per acre.

    Just interested to know if I'm missing something. Also interested to know how/why investors want something like this.

    submitted by /u/vagonswol
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    What’s your to-do list the day you take ownership of a property?

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 11:14 AM PST

    What is immediate for you? Change locks, smoke detectors etc. what else?

    submitted by /u/Heydanu
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    HELOC or Second Mortgage?

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 07:15 AM PST

    I own a home worth 300k (180k balance on the mortgage) and would like to purchase a second home. Is it better to do a home equity line of credit on the value of the first home in order to purchase the second one, or a brand new mortgage?

    submitted by /u/ironmonk33
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    [CA] Buying first MFH. No disclosures on the home, built in 1960. What are some proper steps to insure the inspection company I hire is competent? What "extra" inspections should I do other than home, mites, roof (sewer lateral, etc)?

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 01:07 PM PST

    The original owner lived there for the last 60 years now and her estate is selling to me after she passed at the age of 106. It appears that the estate has done alot of work as the duplex looks to be completely redone and modernized and they are definitely pricing it that way (laminate floors, new kitchens in both, new appliances in both). My questions is what should I be weary of and what extra inspections should I do? They dont know much about the property other than the work her grandsonson put into it. Is there anything I need to investigate extra to ensure that this isnt just the cosmetic stuff that's been done? Is there any surpriseses that could come up that I can inspect now before placing an offer?

    Thanks in advance

    submitted by /u/dukiepooh
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    Any advice for buying a property with existing tenants?

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 09:08 AM PST

    Buying a duplex, one side currently empty and the other has an older lady who's rented there for 9 years.

    Anything to consider beyond a new lease with tenant? Never inherited a tenant before.

    submitted by /u/Heydanu
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    Those who self manage, who covers when on you take vacation?

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 12:37 PM PST

    Do you hire a temp service or have a friend standby?

    I pay my friend (plumber) to attend to any calls (very rare) while I'm gone.

    submitted by /u/Heydanu
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    Tax Return Software For Real Estate Investing

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 12:07 PM PST

    I'm at the very beginning of the real estate investing process, building my tools and general understanding of the dos and don'ts . I would like to see what programs others have successfully used in the past. I appreciate any guidance.

    submitted by /u/blackheart1317
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    Retired father owns triple net commercial properties - need help moving forward

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 06:59 AM PST

    Hello, I'm not sure if this is the right sub to ask but if not please direct me to a better sub.

    My father has owned 3 triple net commercial properties over the years, essentially he is the landlord and the tenants pay rent monthly. He is in his 80's and has been doing everything in terms of correspondence and paperwork himself. He is getting old and disorganized and I am looking to find out if there is something such as a "property manager" or a company he can hire to do this for him. He gets the quarterly Tax bills for the properties as well as sewer taxes. Is there a type of company that he ( and eventually I ) can send the quarterly taxes to and have sorted out? I do not work in real estate

    submitted by /u/dobbish
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    FHA on a new 4-plex? Good idea for me at this stage?

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 10:37 AM PST

    Property values are insane in my area, and I've started leaning towards new-build 4-plexes. I'm here to see if it's even possible for me to do this in the near future, or if this is something to consider further down the line. I intend to live in one of the units for at least 3 years.

    FHA 4 plex loan limits in my county are 638k.

    This property has not yet been built. It's currently just a dirt lot. Builder estimates that it will be worth around 2 million when completed.

    About the property:

    • Listed at 535K, but the description notes that final costs will be closer to 800k

    • 4 units, 2200-2500 square feet per unit

    • 3 bed, 2 bath, 2 car garage per unit

    • Typical rent in the area is 1600 - 2200 per month

    About me:

    • 27yo, 80k saved, first time investor

    • 84k/yr income, early career and have more income potential

    • 46k in loans: 30k student loans, 16k car loan

    • Living expenses are about 10k per year including all loans and payments.

    If anyone has done something similar, please share your experiences! Thanks.

    submitted by /u/2020tryhard
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    Self-serve dog wash - Land rental?

    Posted: 03 Nov 2020 09:37 AM PST

    I'm planning on starting a self-serve dog wash business in my area. The building will be a 20x15ft "shed" that will have a couple of dog wash bays. I will need electricity, water and sewage.

    I'm targeting local dog parks and their surrounding areas. The person that owns one of the parks and the surrounding land is a REI. My question for you is how should I go about requesting a ~300sqft plot of land from the owner? Should I request to lease a portion of the property for a certain amount or share the profits with the land owner? I'm trying to find a solution that makes sense for both of us. I also don't want him to run with the idea once I pitch it to him, but that's a risk I'm going to have to take lol.

    submitted by /u/ThoughtEngineer90
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